348
FXUS63 KAPX 231722
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
122 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few more showers Sunday

- Summer-like temperatures for Memorial Day

- Warm into mid-week, with cooler temperatures during the end of the
week

- Minimal rain chances next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough and weak surface reflection in the process of
rotating northeast across lower Michigan early this afternoon. While
most substantial system attendant moisture advection and heaviest
rain are well removed to our southeast, broad deformation within a
marginally moist mid level environment did manage to kick off a few
mostly light showers across parts of northern lower Michigan this
morning. Combination of clouds and those earlier showers are keeping
temperatures a bit below normal...especially so across northeast
lower Michigan as gusty east winds bring in Lake Huron modified air.
Another much more robust shortwave currently rotating north into the
prairie lands of southern Canada, with showers tied to that wave
remaining well upstream.

Lead wave will continue to rotate off to our northeast tonight,
replaced by upstream troughing on Sunday. Trends continue to favor
the development of a rather strong central NOAM centered omega block
heading through next week, shunting all deep moisture off to our
south and east with time. This definitely favors a rather lengthly
period of rather inactive weather across the region, along with
variable temperatures as ridge/trough interface goes through
longitudinal adjustments with passing embedded waves within
northeast NOAM centered trough portion of this omega block.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower evolution tonight and Sunday followed by mostly temperature
trend concerns next week.

Details:

Departure of lead wave ends shower chances as we head through
tonight. Arrival of upstream troughing and weak low level
convergence axis renews shower chances on Sunday...helped along by
lake breeze driven convergence zones and the development of some
weak diurnally-driven instability. Lack of deeper moisture/forcing
and instability will limit both shower coverage and intensity, with
most areas and much of the time remaining dry. Now well advertised
warming trend kicks off Sunday, with highs in the 60s to middle 70s.
While Memorial day does look warmer, some questions starting to
arise to both on just how warm we become and possible isolated
shower chances. Guidance beginning to hone in on the possibility of
a passing weak wave within generally building mid/upper level
heights. This would not only potentially kick off a few diurnally
supported showers, but also raise concerns with cloud cover keeping
temperatures a bit cooler than currently advertised. Definitely
don`t think showers will become significant, and again still
expecting temperatures to run several degrees above normal.

Questions for the remainder of extended center on placement of that
ridge/trough interface within that maturing omega block. Initially
it appears apex of mid/upper level ridge centers near or right over
the western Great Lakes, with some trends supporting a slight
retrogression to long-wave features to end the week. Should this
latest trend continue, it could result in a decidedly much more
northern component to our low level flow as troughing digs west
into New England and the eastern Great Lakes. Latest forecast
leaving this office is definitely trending that direction as well,
with summer-like warmth Tuesday (widespread highs in the 80s)
followed by a gradual step-down with temperatures to end the
week...with highs by Friday back into the 60s and 70s. Same pattern
argues for little in the way of any active weather with all forcing
and moisture displaced well to our south and east through the
period...although suppose a few showers will be possible in the
Wednesday timeframe along that southward dropping cold front if just
talked about pattern retrogression does indeed occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Conditions largely trend MVFR through the remainder of the
afternoon for most TAF sites, though may hold off until after
sunset at TVC. -SHRA potential most likely at APN through the
afternoon. Activity eventually transitions to BR / FG overnight,
which will lead to potential for VSBY and / or CIGs falling into
IFR territory, perhaps even LIFR at APN, PLN, and CIU.
Anticipating most areas to lift to MVFR after daybreak Sunday,
with some -SHRA potential to accompany to close out the forecast
period.

Breezy easterly winds (sustained 10 to 15kts+ with gusts 25 to
30kts+, strongest CIU, PLN, and APN) will carry through the
evening, tapering some late this evening before largely going
light and variable later tonight. Winds turn southerly and less
gusty Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion