808
FXUS63 KAPX 151722
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
122 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy this afternoon through Friday. Windy and cooler
  temperatures Friday.

- Breezy conditions continue at times this weekend, with
  moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised rainy and increasingly
windy conditions on tap over the next 24-36 hours with current focus
on two inbound areas of low pressure. The first currently sitting
near the Manitoba/Ontario/Minnesota border and dropping southeast,
while the second wave continues to trek northeast out of the south-
central Plains. The parent waves of these features currently in the
process of phasing upstream with the end result expected to be one
larger area of sfc low pressure that crosses lower Michigan tonight
before racing quickly east to New England through the day on Friday.
Upper-level heights build behind this system over the weekend with
renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and
gradually moderating temperatures into at least the middle of next
week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus through Friday evening revolves
around incoming widespread rain this afternoon through much of
tonight. As this system pushes downstream on Friday, continued wrap
around moisture will result in additional numerous showers and
increasingly strong NNW winds. Strong cold air advection on Friday
as a result, which will eventually bring an increased lake component
(aiding in additional shower activity), especially Friday afternoon
through Friday evening.  PWs remain progged as high as 1-1.5" across
the forecast area early this evening through the first half of the
overnight hours -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climatological mean for
mid-October. Should be a fairly steady moderate rain for much of the
forecast area through tonight, especially beneficial for those in
expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts this
afternoon through Friday afternoon up a bit from 24 hours ago --
largely ranging from 0.60 - 1.00". As one would expect,
probabilities have also increased for localized amounts of 1.00"+,
up to 50-80% across portions of the area, most notably in NNW flow
lake effect area that see the most numerous continued shower
activity Friday afternoon/evening.  Some very low (

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion