295
FXUS63 KAPX 040307
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1107 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Shower/storm chances continue at various times through Friday
night. Locally heavy rain and a stronger storm or two possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the
overnight/early morning hours. Several areas of convection noted
upstream, particularly, over S. central WI and a decaying
convective system over the Arrowhead of MN, with another over
NW/N. Central MN in its wake...and bit of discrete action over
central MN that is waning as of 3z...and just starting to see
some convective activity developing over northern/central WI.
General pattern suggests the upstream pattern will generally
propagate eastward toward northern Lower MI...but could/should
trend toward the southeast with time -- currently progged to
arrive between 9-12z. Our area remains in the col/deformation
region attm, suggesting potential fgen concerns that could boost
rainfall totals overnight (and air mass remains very moist...0z
sounding had pwat of 1.56in with K index of 30 and freezing
levels are still over 3km)...and do wonder about training
convection as well, with that boundary still more or less zonal.
Latest SPC update did pull the marginal back to the south a
smidgen (though still covering most of Manistee and Wexford
counties) with the expectation this will be close enough to the
path of whatever MCS congeals upstream, and subsequent wind
concerns...but this area may end up becoming more problematic
from a hydro standpoint if another round of heavy rain rolls
through there. Other possible concern is the upstream activity
and attendant pressure perturbations resulting in some water
level fluctuations in the St. Mary`s River system...and will be
keeping an eye on this, too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing progressing over the eastern
Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slowly trek east
this afternoon through Friday. The associated ~1008 mb surface low
pressure centered over western Quebec will also weaken and follow
suit to the east through this time. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify
across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the
holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson
Bay/Ontario that will nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/
Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the Great Lakes
region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works
across the west from the Pacific coast.

Forecast Details: Showers/storms continue to percolate across
southern reaches of the forecast area into mid-Michigan early
this afternoon. Not a ton of change to this through early
evening with the highest PoPs focused near and south of M-72.
While severe weather doesn`t appear to be a glaring threat,
suppose there`s enough support there for a low chance of a
stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds -- lining up
well with SPC`s latest D1 outlook. Primary concern continues to
be locally heavy rainfall. Areas that received 1-3.5"+ of rain
over the last several hours (far southwestern portions of the
CWA) will be most susceptible to potential localized flooding
concerns with any additional locally heavy downpours.

Expecting a break in shower/storm coverage mid-late evening, but
latest trends showing increased support for additional upstream
showers/storms to make inroads across parts of northern Michigan
tonight into Friday morning. While lots of uncertainty riddles this
time frame (partially hinging on how this afternoon/evening shake
out across the broader region), think that if precip is able to
survive into northern Michigan later tonight that`ll it`ll be
primary a locally heavy rain threat rather than a severe weather
threat. Probabilities for 1"+ of rain have increased over the last
several forecast cycles with even some low probabilities for 2"+
noted (these higher end chances maximized south of APX`s CWA).

While some shower/storm chances will linger Friday into Friday
evening, a general drying trend is anticipated heading into the
holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and largely precip-free
conditions anticipated Saturday - Monday with daily high
temperatures near to several degrees above early September normals.
Chances for a return to more active conditions look to hold off
until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

No precip out there presently, but some patchy stratus is
bringing borderline MVFR/IFR cigs to nw lower MI, including TVC.
MBL has also fogged in. Chance for showers/TSRA will increase
again tonight, especially late, and especially for TVC/MBL.
These sites have VCTS or TSRA mentioned for a few hours, though
this should at least stir up the fog at MBL before daybreak.
TVC/MBL should all have periods of MVFR to perhaps cigs
overnight into part of Friday. Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion