377
FXUS63 KAPX 051105
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
605 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rainy, breezy, and cooler...with lake effect rain and snow
showers possible tonight into Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Upper low over the Upper Midwest beginning to open up...as PV tracks
into Hudson Bay to our north, allowing cold air aloft to spill
southward into Ontario...and 100kt upper jet across the southern US
propels another PV maxima eastward into the central Plains; no time
for a break out west as another strong PV punches into the PacNW
thanks to strong Pacific flow. Dry slot swept through the region
last evening (cold front stretching from the eastern shore of Lake
Superior down into Lake Huron as of 5z)...shunting warmer air and
deepest moisture (pwats around or above 1.5in) eastward, though a
plume of moisture remains trapped beneath the 700mb low/trowal over
the Upper MS Valley to our west. Plume of cooler air sneaking
in...850mb temps falling below 5C attm; much cooler air to our north
over Ontario as noted above...where 850mb temps fall into the -5C
and colder range. North to northeast low-level trajectories across
Ontario into the Upper Midwest suggest low-level cold advection will
continue...and this is reflected at the surface by a cold front
stretching from Hudson Bay toward western Lake Superior...as 1024mb
surface high takes over the Canadian Prairie provinces. Primary blob
of convection associated with the cold front has exited our
area...but some additional showers have moved in in the wake of the
first cold front as a little more moisture works in.
Trough to our west will begin to track northeast as energy to our
north digs down into the back of the trough again tonight into
Friday. This should both serve to punt the bulk of the moisture
out...but also drop much colder air into the region, which should
kick the lake machine into gear. More energy transits the flow out
west, with ridging into Canada to our west; high pressure will try
to build in Friday into Saturday, but troughing will do its best to
hold on across the Great Lakes (a taste of things to come). Upstream
niblet will make its way into the region Saturday as additional
northern stream energy passes by going into Sunday; the bulk of this
system attm appears to remain to our east. Only a brief break Sunday
night into Monday before another system crashes in from the Canadian
Prairies, with troughing trying to hang on over our area into
Wednesday as the upstream flow amplifies again. Attm, signals point
toward troughing trying to settle into the eastern US for the latter
half of the week next week, with ridging over the west/central US.
This idea suggests warmth and high pressure over the central US.
FORECAST DETAILS...
Breezy today/tonight...Tightening pressure gradient between high
pressure over Canada and departing low pressure will result in
breezy north to northeast flow entering the scene later this
afternoon into tonight; this should linger into much of Friday as
the trough ends up closing off to our southeast. Pressure gradient
will support sustained winds in the realm of 15-20kts across the
EUP, perhaps into the tip of the Mitt region going into the
afternoon. North to northeast winds could channel stronger flow into
Traverse City as well as north facing points down the coasts. Expect
a period of 25-35kt gusts late in the day into the
overnight...though it appears the low-level jet may attempt to wane
in strength Thursday night and could dial back gust potential
quicker than expected. Still, with better fetch and perhaps a slight
bit of isallobaric influences...think there will be a period of
gales this evening, which would most likely be on northern Lake MI,
particularly along the NW Coast, with less certainty for Whitefish
Bay. Have opted to follow suit with GRR and upgrade to Gale warnings
for the Lake MI zones this afternoon through Friday morning.
Rain transitions to lake effect showers (snow overnight?)...Showers
to continue today with that lobe of still anomalous (though not
quite as anomalous as what we have just seen) moisture pivoting
back in. With the cooler air sweeting in, appears there will be a
fairly robust low-level fgen response with the front sweeping across
the area this afternoon; additionally, there are signals for some
more robust fgen aloft near and north of the surface low this
afternoon/evening as colder air floods southward on northerly flow,
which should also enhance QPF potential, though it is possible this
may only impact the EUP, and at that, perhaps only a portion...as it
may remain mostly to our east. At the same time, by late afternoon,
temps aloft should be cold enough to support overlake instability
generation over the EUP, spreading southward with time...resulting
in lake enhancement to ongoing synoptic-driven activity through
Thursday night and perhaps even into Friday, particularly over the
EUP where deeper synoptic moisture could hold on north of the closed
low expected to develop over southern MI. This should slowly drift
southeastward with time Friday into Friday night as the upper low
tries to exit, and this will allow activity to spread southward into
northeast Lower MI in particular, though northerly flow suggests
activity downwind of Grand Traverse Bay as well. Would not be
entirely surprised if lake-based activity hung on a bit into
Saturday as well, as 925mb temps should remain sufficient for
overlake instability to continue in the presence of some low-level
moisture.
P-type concerns do appear to come into play tonight...as
temperatures fall into the 30s...and temps aloft fall below -5C and
become more supportive of the presence of ice nuclei, though this
latter idea may not take place till sometime after 5-6z or so. Think
the best shot at snow will be over the EUP, where the colder air
should be...but the interior higher terrain of northern Lower should
have a shot as well, though would not be surprised if a few flakes
tried to mix in elsewhere Thursday night into Friday morning. The
threat for snow could actually hang on into the daytime hours Friday
as we will be much colder, with high temps struggling to get out of
the lower 40s. For now, do not have snowfall accumulations in the
grids...and trying to figure out if it will stick given the recent
warmth and soil temps still in the upper 50s or so.
However...suppose it wouldn`t be impossible for some beefier bands
to lead to some sloppy accumulations (again, in those coldest
spots across the Yoop and the higher terrain of interior northern
Lower).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Showers continue today with primarily MVFR cigs/visbys but could
drop to IFR in more vigorous activity, esp this afternoon/tonight.
SW winds 10-15kt gust 20-25kt this morning and will switch to W and
then NW and N within a few hours this afternoon (generally 19-23z
for most sites, but closer to 23-03z at APN) with a cold front.
Gusts 20-30kts expected, but could reach 35kts this
afternoon/evening. RA could mix with SN after 0-3z tonight, esp for
CIU; less confidence elsewhere.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this
evening for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for LSZ322.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...FEF
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion