000
FXUS63 KAPX 281700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1200 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Most of our CWA is waking up to sunny skies and temps in the 30s
this late November morning thanks to surface ridging and dry low
level air. Some mid and upper level clouds are streaming across
upper Michigan as a weak moisture-starved wave rides thru the
Northern Great Lakes. Skies will again clear across Upper Michigan
this afternoon as the wave and associated moisture exit east.
Under mainly sunny skies...temps will warm into the 40s across our
entire CWA...which is around 10 degrees warmer than normal for
today. Breezy conditions will develop today...which will certainly
make conditions feel cooler the actual air temps. Enjoy your
Saturday!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing and associated pocket of colder air is
departing the region early this morning, while warmer and drier air
was pressing it`s way toward nrn Michigan. This warmer air was out
ahead of low pressure and warm front in Central Canada, and another
in the western provinces. Clouds were being eaten away at and skies
have been clearing. Not much was happening upstream, with just some
increased higher clouds moving through Lake Superior, and into
eastern upper Michigan. Additional higher level clouds were moving
into the North Central Plains and Upper Midwest. All-in-all, pretty
quiet.

Gonna continue to be quiet through tonight. The warmer and drier air
will be advected into nrn Michigan via gusty SW winds today. Further
clearing is expected through today and this evening, with mostly
clear/party cloudy skies on tap. Could be some of that upstream
higher level clouds arriving late tonight, but that about as
exciting as it is going to get. Although precipitation is not
expected through tonight, at least one eye must be open over Lake
Superior this morning. There is a decent shortwave and associated
band of DPVA that drops in just north of Whitefish Bay, and is
likely to produce mixed rain and snow. As of right now, am expecting
it to remain to our north.

High temperatures will range through the 40s today, highest in
downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight are expected to largely
range through the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Light snow starting Sunday along with
cold and blustery winds.

Synopsis/pattern: By Sunday morning we`ll have a wave quickly
approaching from the northwest into the upper Mississippi Valley,
with a cut-off low moving through the southern Mississippi Valley.
These two entities will phase together to produce an very large and
deep upper level low across the Ohio Valley late Monday. At the
surface a weak low pressure system moving through southern Ontario
will drag a cold front across us Sunday...then a deeper surface low
induced by the aformentioned upper level cut-off will trek along the
frontal boundary up toward the lower Great Lakes late Monday. This
will draw down colder air across the region heading through the
first half of next week.

Details/Forecast: The weak cold front starts to move toward Northern
Michigan early Sunday, and we struggle quite a bit with moisture in
northern lower, so this may end up simply being a dry frontal
passage south of the bridge. In Eastern Upper we may be able to tap
into slightly better moisture and a little dynamic lift to squeeze
out some light showers in the afternoon and evening. Across the
entire area winds shift from southwesterly through the morning to
northwest through the afternoon, and more northerly overnight...in
response to the deepening low in the Ohio Valley and the building
surface ridge through the Mississippi Valley. Winds also get a bit
more breezy Monday in response to the increased pressure gradient.
Latest guidance has shifted the upcoming system south and east, with
much of the better moisture likely remaining displaced from our area
through Monday...however it`s not out of the question that counties
near Saginaw Bay get in on some of the synoptic snow.

Afternoon temperatures will be a tad above normal Sunday, with highs
mainly in the mid 40s. Monday will be cold and blustery behind the
cold front, with highs in the upper 20s north of the bridge and in
higher in higher terrain...a bit warmer near the coasts in the low
30s. Wind chills drop through the teens through the afternoon and
evening. Overnights lows drop into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Potential storm system with majority
of impacts missing us to southeast. Light lake effect remains
possible.

Tuesday we`ll still be dealing with this system as it becomes
stacked over Lake Ontario. This looks like the best chance for some
light accumulations of snow for us, as deeper moisture rotates over
Northern Michigan. Accumulations don`t look to be too much, as 850mb
temperature become marginal at best for lake effect Tuesday,
combined with low inversion heights. As mentioned prior much of the
synoptic moisture misses us to the southeast, only briefly passing
overhead through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance has also decreased total
snow amount through midweek. Either way will keep inherited slight
chance of snow in the typical northerly flow areas along the coasts
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Heading through Wednesday the low pulls
off to the north toward James Bay. Moisture starts to decrease and
midlevel temperatures start to warm up, effectively diminishing lake
effect chances through the day. Even with guidance discrepancies, we
seem to be headed toward another relatively dry and quiet period
late week, with maybe some increased precip chances heading into the
weekend as another front moves across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Large area of high pressure centered from the Central Plains thru
the Ohio Valley will gradually slide eastward thru tonight. Low
pressure will track thru Lake Superior late tonight in Sunday
morning...pushing an associated cold front thru Michigan on
Sunday. VFR conditions will continue across Northern Lower
Michigan thru Sunday with no precip expected despite the passage
of a cold front Sunday afternoon. SW winds will strengthen to 10
to 20 kts with some higher gusts today into early evening...and
then diminish to 10 kts or less tonight into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

A disturbance aloft and associated pocket of colder air is departing
the region early this morning, while warmer and drier air was
pressing it`s way toward nrn Michigan. This warmer air was out ahead
of low pressure and warm front in Central Canada, and another in the
western provinces. These areas of low pressure and increasingly more
wind out of the SW, will draw in the warmer air via gusty advisory
level conditions for many nearshore waters today, with no chance for
precipitation. The low pressure and it`s cold front cross us Sunday,
with colder air arriving late in the day and Sunday night through
gusty widespread advisory level NW winds. This will also result in
developing lake effect precipitation.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Sunday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion