FXUS63 KAPX 271129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
729 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...Lake enhanced rains and cool weather to continue...

High Impact Weather Potential: Dangerous swimming conditions on some
of our beaches into this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Not much has changed in the last 24 hours, with deep troughing
centered right across the heart of the Great Lakes...bringing with
it seasonably chilly air and plenty of rain showers to our area.
Most persistent and organized showers continue to target our favored
lake effect areas, with a favorable over-water thermal gradient and
appreciably deep lake-induced convective layer supporting plenty of
lake moisture contribution and sustained updrafts. Just like the
last few night, all those clouds and showers have put a serious
damper on our typical nocturnal temperature response, with current
readings in 40s and lower 50s just a few degrees cooler than
yesterday`s high temperatures.

Large scale features become a bit more progressive, allowing current
troughing to slowly slide east of the region tonight...and
especially as we head into the middle of the week. Still another day
of showers and cool weather expected today, with gradually improving
conditions tonight and Wednesday as mid/upper level heights begin to

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Main focus remains on shower evolution and temperature trends
through tonight.


Expect showers to continue today as troughing and deep moisture
remain. Most organized and widespread showers expected this morning,
and especially in north-northwest to northwest flow lake effect
areas as passing mid level perturbation and surface trough axis drop
overhead. Passage of those features swings winds around to a more
northerly direction this afternoon. Loss of better mid level support
and some thinning of the moisture in the vertical should begin to
take a toll on shower organization and intensity into this
afternoon. That trend continues into tonight, with a more aggressive
thinning of the moisture and a falling convective depth further
supporting loss of shower coverage and organization. Expect by later
tonight what showers remain will be very light and confined to those
favored north flow lake effect regions. Coolest air within overhead
troughing arrives today and tonight. Expect high temperatures today
to run a good 10 or more degrees below normal, with highs maxing out
mostly in the lower and middle 50s. Somewhat tricky temperature
forecast tonight. Simple magnitude of cold air advection supports
lows dropping into the upper 30s across interior areas. If somewhat
more aggressive clearing of the skies occurs than what is currently
anticipated, could see those areas drop a few degrees colder yet.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...Residual lake effect showers...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing pushes to our east and heights start to
rise over us on Wednesday, before broad and flat ridging push across
much of the CONUS and into the Great Lakes region later in the week.
Outside of coastal lake effect rain showers, the majority of the
area will remain dry both days thanks to high pressure dominating
the surface pressure pattern. This will also lead to very cold
overnight lows late Wednesday night.

Details: Heading into Wednesday winds diminish and turn more
northerly, targeting areas along the coast will lingering showers.
Inversion heights start the morning around 5 kft but are quickly
overcome by dry subsiding air, creating an increasingly hostile
environment for showers to continue. Highs on Wednesday look to be
in the low to mid 50`s. Wednesday night will be the coldest of the
week by far, with surface high pressure directly overhead. If winds
can decouple for long enough, believe we`ll drop into the mid 20`s.
We`ll have surface return flow starting Thursday with milder air
bumping up highs near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...Late week warm up...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Heading into the weekend we`ll continue to have zonal flow over the
Great Lakes, while Ian moves up Florida. At the surface we`ll
continue with warm air advection, with high temperatures actually
climbing up above normal. The region will remain dominated by high
pressure just to our north through the weekend. This combined with
warmer than normal 850mb temperatures and abundant sunshine will
push highs to the upper 60`s at least. A weak front moving through
may bring the chance of more showers early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Simply more of the same through today, with mostly MVFR conditions
under passing lake enhanced rain showers. Moisture begins to thin
out some tonight, gradually helping increase cloud bases and
diminish areal coverage and intensity of showers. Gusty northwest
to north winds through the period.


Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Gusty northwest to north winds to continue through tonight, bringing
with them widespread small craft advisory conditions and periods of
lake enhanced rain showers. Winds begin to subside later tonight,
and especially Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure
builds into the region.


MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018-020-
LH...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion