008
FXUS63 KAPX 122314
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
714 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances this evening and again Saturday into
  Sunday morning. Localized heavy rainfall is primary threat.
  Low chances for severe storms Saturday.

- High Swim Risk possible south of Empire Saturday.

- Much cooler Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to churn south of Hudson
Bay through the weekend. An associated trough embedded in the main
flow currently overhead will lift northeast of the region tonight as
a second jet max punches over the Great Lakes on Saturday. At the
surface, a relatively weak/diffuse cold front draped across the
Midwest will drop northwest to southeast across the area in the
Saturday PM/Sunday AM timeframe. High pressure will temporarily
build in on the backside of troughing to start next week before the
pattern looks to become more active through the middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

A boundary/low-level convergence axis apparent in latest obs with
north winds near Sault Ste. Marie and southwest winds across other
portions of the eastern U.P. will likely be the focus for shower
development later this afternoon. Relatively steep lapse rates,
mixed-layer buoyancy on the order of several hundred J/kg, and deep-
layer shear around 35 kts will contribute to support localized
thunderstorm potential near Whitefish Bay into this evening. While
gusty winds and small hail is possible with any stronger cells,
severe storms are not expected at this time. Shower/storm chances
will wane late this evening into tonight.

The primary focus for the forecast period will be the rounds of
showers and storms that are expected to begin early Saturday morning
and continue at times into Sunday morning. Warm advection/large-
scale ascent over the aforementioned front draped across the Midwest
will provide sufficient forcing to support showers/storms well to
our west this evening. Current expectation is that this activity
will hold together as it tracks east over Lake Michigan late tonight
into early Saturday morning. While precise location is still
uncertain, multiple rounds of showers/storms appear likely to track
across northern Michigan between M-72 and the Straits throughout the
day -- perhaps raining a majority of the daylight hours across the
wettest corridor of northern Michigan. While severe weather
parameters appear favorable on the surface (sufficient buoyancy,
strong shear w/ 0-3km BWD ~60kts and 0-6km BWD ~70kts), belief is
that storm mode will largely inhibit severe chances on Saturday.
That said, a few strong storms capable of producing strong winds and
hail cannot be ruled out. Primary concern with storms will be the
threat for localized heavy rainfall in excess of 1" by Saturday
night -- with the potential for some areas to see closer to 2" under
training heavy showers/storms. Chances for showers/storms will
gradually work south with time later Saturday into Sunday as the
front moves across the area, leaving mostly dry conditions in place
to end the weekend. On top of shower/storm chances, gusty southwest
winds may keep a high swim risk in place at some Lake Michigan
beaches Saturday -- mostly likely from Empire south.

Much cooler temperatures will also move in behind the front with
highs mainly staying in the 60s on Sunday. Temperatures look to
gradually warm through the first half of next week, though most
areas will stay a few degrees cooler than mid-June averages. Rain
chances also look to hold off through Monday before returning by
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions overnight as current high based cu field
continues to erode. Weak front will drive some more higher based
cumulus into the region later tonight into Saturday. Showers are
expected with these increasing clouds, with current trends
supporting the most widespread showers Saturday morning
targeting KPLN and KCIU, with these showers slowly settling
south through the afternoon. May see some embedded thunderstorms
as well, although confidence in coverage of storms remains low.
Given uncertainties, will continue with minimal impacts from
these showers with this taf cycle...keeping conditions VFR. Of
course, any heavier showers will likely result in brief periods
of MVFR conditions. Gusty winds go light tonight, with winds
becoming gusty out of the southwest again Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ025-
     031-088.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344-345.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion