FXUS63 KAPX 061857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 16z surface/composite analysis shows high
pressure extending from Wisconsin/Illinois eastward into southern
New England with a 1022mb center over central Lower Michigan.  Water
vapor imagery shows several vorticity centers rotating across and
around Michigan...once moving into the Thumb region with some hints
of a second over southern Wisconsin with a broad area of implied
upward motion across much of Lower Michigan.  Also a pair of
vorticity centers dropping southeast across Lake Superior...leading
edge of forcing with these features across Upper michigan and
sliding toward far northern Lower Michigan.  Seeing a few showers
pop along the lake breeze across Cheboygan/Presque Isle
counties...and some building cloud tops across eastern Upper though
no indications of glaciation just yet.  Axis of 60+F dew points over
Lake Michigan and through the Straits region feeding an axis of
shallow instability driving this shower development.  Broken cumulus
field across much of the forecast area away from the stabilizing
influence of the Great Lakes.

Short wave troughing over Lake Superior will continue to track
southeast tonight across the forecast area...while surface ridge
continues to extend back across Lower Michigan.  Surface pattern
configuration doesn`t change much Friday while short wave ridging
builds into the upper Lakes (interesting that NAM-WRF looks like its
having a bit of a model convective gravity wave explosion over
Minnesota during the day).

Primary Forecast Concerns: Late afternoon/evening showers across
eastern Upper and through the tip of the mitt counties...and should
fade later this evening with loss of heating.  Given axis of better
low level moisture across eastern Upper and with light winds tonight
may see some fog development similar to this morning.  Thursday at
this point looks pretty good with ridging at the surface and aloft.
The warmup should continue with more widespread highs in the 80-85
degree range.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...Continued Warmth with Increasing Humidity...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Forecast Concerns...Whether or not to include pops Saturday.

Heights continue to slowly build into Saturday with a nearly zonal
flow aloft developing to end the weekend. Instability remains on the
low side Saturday so will continue to run with the rain free
forecast. A short wave and possible mesoscale convective complex
moving through the flow Saturday night into Sunday will increase
chances for showers and slight chances for thunderstorms. Humidity
will be on the rise as well. One more comfortable night with lows in
the mid to upper 50s Friday night then warm and muggy Saturday night
with lows in the mid and upper 60s. Highs for both Saturday and
Sunday in the low and mid 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...Warm and Humid then Less Humid and not Quite as Warm...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

A long wave trough moving across northern Canada looks like it will
drag a surface cold front across the region Monday likely spawning
showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to usher in not
quite as warm and less humid conditions into mid-week before more
building ridging/heat toward the end of next week. Forecast
temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period.
Overall, it looks like a very warm pattern will be in place well
into August.


Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Surface ridge extending across Lower Michigan will keep winds on
the light side through Friday...with some lake breeze development
likely within the Lake Huron nearshore zones. Some fog overnight
also possible on Whitefish Bay and along the St. Mary`s River.
Headline conditions not expected through Friday night...increasing
southwest winds may bring small craft conditions to Lake Michigan
nearshore zones Saturday.





NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion