FXUS63 KAPX 291938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...Getting cooler...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low. Maybe a few rumbles of
thunder thru early evening. High swim risk possible on some ne
lower MI beaches Saturday.

Rain band has departed ne lower MI. Strong surface heating and
cooling temps aloft have allowed showers to develop in the wake
of the departing rain. As expected, coverage is highest in s
central and se sections. But a few showers have popped elsewhere,
especially in central/eastern Mack Co into se Chip Co in upper

Ongoing showers in northern lower/eastern upper MI have a clear
diurnal component, and will fade away this evening. However, this
will be a somewhat slowed/delayed process, as steep mid-level
lapse rates are maintained. Some showers could linger near OSC and
Standish thru 9 pm or so. Meanwhile, showers are also trying to
bubble up in central/western upper MI. Remnants of these will try
to move into nw lower MI this evening, and models continue to
advertise that they should have some limited success in doing so.
Will continue to have a small chance of showers this evening in
parts of nw lower MI.

A secondary cold front is dropping across northern Superior this
afternoon. This will cross northern MI late tonight and early
Saturday. High pressure will then build into the upper MS Valley
and western Great Lakes. 850mb temps will cool to a couple degrees
either side of 0C by early Sat afternoon. Occasional cyclonic
curvature to the low level flow will interact with very marginal
lake instability to produce some clouds and small chances for rain
showers. This will occur in western/central Chippewa Co tonight,
and in the same area plus much of nw lower MI Sat morning. The
afternoon looks dry.

The secondary cold front will also bring breezier nw winds.
Winds/waves are presently progged to result in a high swim risk
Saturday on beaches in Presque Isle Co. This was added to the Haz
Wx Outlook earlier today.

Temps will be sharply cooler. Mins tonight will range thru the
40s. Highs Sat in the mid 50s to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Frost potential for Saturday night
(and Sunday night?) for portions of eastern upper and northern lower

High pressure moves overhead of the forecast area Saturday night,
clearing any remaining clouds, producing light wind and excellent
radiational cooling. Ensemble members of the SREF and GEFS are both
tightly centered near the mean of around 32 degrees...from
experience we know that the inland areas and especially the
traditionally colder locations may reach into the upper 20s. Sunday
is supposed to be a bit warmer, so don`t expect as widespread of
frost during Sunday night (or possibly none if winds don`t
decouple), but still some areas inland of the Great Lakes coastlines
will continue to have a frost potential...will need to check again
after the next model runs. Other than the frost, skies should be
mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday with only some minor gustiness
during the afternoon hours from the west to northwest and should at
least diminish in intensity and possibly even decouple. Winds remain
out of the west for the most part Monday (with afternoon gustiness
once again) as high pressure just begins to move to the east of us
and allow some return moisture to begin late Monday evening on the
western periphery of said high pressure...returning shower chances
to northwest lower Michigan by the end of this forecast period
(Monday afternoon/evening). There will be increased cloudiness
Monday as aforementioned deeper moisture approaches the forecast
area. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s Sunday and
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Monday night
through Tuesday evening.

The next chance for precipitation appears to be the beginning of
next work week when a cold front associated with a low pressure
system over Canada approaches the Great Lakes region. We once again
will be in the warm sector ahead of this cold front...with a decent
LLJ, deep moisture, and upper level wave to help with the developing
of rain showers and thunderstorms once again. Pattern becomes a bit
more zonal after this...with only nuisance clouds and showers at
different periods of the long range forecast. Daytime temperatures
should be in the 70s with some locations occassionally hitting the
80 degree mark...while lows should be in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Spotty MVFR cigs this afternoon.

Rain and is exiting ne lower MI, and the present MVFR cigs there
will improve shortly. MBL is also dealing with some MVFR cigs off
of Lake MI; those will also improve this afternoon. A few showers
could still pop again in ne lower MI thru early evening. There is
also a chance for showers that germinate in upper MI to make a run
into nw lower MI this evening. Otherwise, quieter but cooler wx is

Nw winds will become gustier tonight and Saturday.


Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Nw winds will increase tonight into Saturday, as a secondary cold
front arrives and brings cooler air to northern MI. Small craft
advisories are already up on many waters. Lighter winds are
expected Sat night into Sun morning, before w to sw winds start to
pick up again Sun afternoon.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for LHZ347-348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday
     for LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday
     for LMZ342-344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for LSZ321-322.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion